Can software identify the next Pogačar?
Road cycling is an odd sport. It has a relatively large following, but only once yearly for one race. Tour de France is the epitome of professional cycling.
Vakis Rigas
June 30, 2024
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Data inaccuracy (Unsupervised data collection can lead to inaccuracies.) -
Limited to performance data (Performance data alone can be misleading.) -
Signal-to-noise ratio (A lot of data is polluted by actors trying to game the system.) -
Data privacy (Sharing data gives competitors insights into your performance level.)
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Performance (Scouts look at power outputs like watts per kg., VO2, etc.) -
Performance over time (Are you improving?) -
Race performance (How do they rank in races, and do they improve over time?) -
Attitude and charisma (You may favor riders with a good attitude or even ones with a big ego)
Request for data.
Attend a race.
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Overall performance: How well does the rider maintain their effort throughout the race? Are they consistent, able to stay with the Peloton, and make breakaways? They also want to see how well the cyclist performs in different race sections. A robust overall performance indicates good fitness and race management, making the candidate a potential fit for a world tour team. -
Climbing ability: How efficiently does the rider climb? What’s their power-to-weight ratio? Are they able to attack or respond to attacks on climbs? A scout needs to understand how explosive a rider is as a climber and how they handle various types of climbing. Are they good on short or steep climbs, and can they sustain power on longer ascends? -
Sprinting skills: What’s the rider's top speed and acceleration? Are they able to position themselves for the final sprint? Would a particularly strong sprinter survive climbs and reach the final destination? -
Tactical awareness: Can a rider read the race? Do they know when to attack and when to conserve energy? Do they understand their competitors' strengths and weaknesses? You’ll want to scout a rider who consistently makes good decisions and positions themselves well throughout a race. -
Teamwork: How well does a rider work within their team? Are they able to follow team orders, do they support the team leader, contribute to lead-outs, and are they able to sacrifice personal ambitions for team goals when necessary? -
Technical skills: How good are the rider’s handling skills during descents, in tight pelotons, or in various weather conditions? How they handle corners and gauge how comfortable the rider is across multiple race situations. -
Recovery: How well does a rider maintain performance over multiple days, and how quickly they seem to recover after intense efforts? -
Mental toughness: Can a rider push through pain, maintain focus during long stages, and perform well under the pressure of high-stakes races? -
Potential for improvement: Can the rider develop, or has their performance peaked? What are their current abilities? What type of support do they have from trainers, nutritionists, and mental coaches? Can this rider be improved with the right resources? -
Versatility: How well does a rider perform across different stages (flat, hilly, mountain), and can they take on other roles (leader, domestique, etc.)? -
Attitude and charisma: How does the rider act on and off the road? Do they have a big ego? Are they charismatic?
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General Classification (GC) Contender: A strong all-rounder who aims to win overall in stage races. They are excellent climbers and perform consistently across all terrains. Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogačar are great examples of this rider type. -
Domestique: Support rider for team leaders. They protect their leader from the wind, fetch supplies, and set the pace. They often have to sacrifice personal ambitions for team goals. Sepp Kuss is a prime example of a Domestique. -
Puncheur: This rider is great on short, steep climbs and accelerates well uphill. Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert are arguably the best Puncheurs right now. -
Sprinter: This rider is typically the heaviest. They specialize in high-speed finishes with exceptional acceleration and incredible top speeds. They rely heavily on their team, which forms a lead-out train to get them as close to the finish line as possible. The most successful sprinter of all time is Mark Cavendish. -
Climber: This rider is light and excels in mountain stages. They have a high power-to-weight ratio and aim only to win mountain stages if they don’t support their GC leader. Richard Carapaz is a prime example of this rider type. -
Time Trial Specialist: These powerhouses put out an incredible amount of watts over extended periods. They are consistent and persistent even on a bike that requires you to sit in a rather uncomfortable position to ensure aerodynamics. Filippo Ganna is currently one of the best. -
Lead-out Man: This rider type is incredibly fast and a team player. They have a high race IQ and always know how to position themselves and their sprinter. The lead-out man breaks the wind for the sprinter and positions them for victory. Michael Mørkøv is one of the more successful lead-out men.
Rider diagnostics.
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VO2 max test: Understanding the rider's maximum oxygen uptake is crucial, indicating their aerobic capacity. -
Lactate threshold test: The team will want to understand when lactic acid accumulates in the blood, indicating their sustainable power output. -
Power profile test: How much power does a rider output across different durations (e.g., 5 seconds, 1 minute, 5 minutes, 20 minutes)? -
Body composition analysis: Body fat percentage, lean muscle mass, and overall physique. -
Flexibility and range of motion tests: Evaluate the rider's flexibility and potential for injury. -
Functional movement screening: Assess movement patterns to identify imbalances or weaknesses. -
Blood tests: Check for general health markers, hormone levels, and potential deficiencies. -
Biomechanical analysis: Examine the rider's pedaling technique and position on the bike. -
Psychological evaluation: Assess mental toughness, motivation, and ability to handle pressure. -
Field tests: Test performance on the road or in a velodrome to evaluate real-world cycling ability.
A limited pool of riders.